FRI 12 DEC – Civilians are being prevented from fleeing major cities in Kordofan by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) despite the risk of escalating attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to reports.
The cities of El Obeid and Kadugli - state capitals of North and South Kordofan - are both under SAF control, but are increasingly being targeted by the RSF following a major redeployment to the region by the group since its capture of El Fasher in late October.
The RSF now holds the territory to the north, west, and south of El Obeid and has maintained a long-running siege on Kadugli as well as the nearby city of Dilling.
Concerns have been raised about whether SAF will be able to hold the cities and the likelihood that civilians will be targeted in the event that they fall.
Residents in El Obeid told the Ayin Network that, despite those fears, SAF has begun preventing many civilians from leaving, with a particular focus on families.
Officials at the central bus station were said to be turning families away, claiming that buses were full, while allowing people travelling alone to board.
In Kadugli, local sources told Darfur24 that authorities had issued directives banning civilians from leaving the city altogether, and that no-one had been allowed to leave since Saturday, while Ayin reports that some have been forced to flee at night.
The head of the Kadugli locality sought to downplay the risk of an escalation, telling state news agency Suna that SAF would ensure public safety and that residents should, in the words of the agency, “disregard rumours and misleading information that could undermine public confidence”.
Over the course of the week, a total of around 1,200 people were displaced by “heightened insecurity” in Kadugli and the surrounding area, according to the International Organization for Migration.
The figures suggest that many civilians in Kadugli face a choice between staying in place despite the risk of injury and attempting to flee in defiance of SAF.
Elsewhere in South Kordofan, there was displacement involving an estimated 235 people in the Talawdi area, around 55 miles southeast of Kadugli, and 590 people in Abassiya, a region in the northeast of the state.
Estimates vary, but the number of people living in El Obeid is thought to be around 560,000. Before the war, the population of Kadugli was believed to be more than 100,000, including many people displaced from elsewhere in Sudan, but more recent estimates suggest the number has dropped to around 90,000.
Fighting in El Obeid could trigger 'mass exodus', says UN
SAF’s exact motive for preventing people from leaving the two cities is unclear, but its public statements have recently sought to promote the idea that areas under its control offer a safe haven to civilians.
In a statement last month, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of SAF and de facto leader of Sudan, said that those displaced in Darfur and Kordofan over the preceding weeks had not gone to “any area under militia [RSF] control…, but rather chose to walk thousands of kilometres to areas under the control of the state and government forces, where they find security and the necessities of life”.
The presence of more vulnerable groups of civilians could also make it harder for the RSF to attack the cities while claiming only to be targeting military sites.
On Monday, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), which is allied with the RSF and controls much of South Kordofan, said in a statement that the fall of both Kadugli and Dilling was “a matter of time” and called on SAF to “withdraw immediately and surrender without losses”.
“We also appeal for the opening of corridors for citizens to leave to safe areas and [for SAF] not to prevent them from protecting their lives,” it said.
Speaking to Reuters from Port Sudan on Monday, the UN’s high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi, warned that an escalation in a large city like El Obeid could lead to a renewed “mass exodus” from Sudan.
“We have to remain...very alert in neighbouring countries in case this happens," he said.
SAF deprived of major income source with loss of oilfield
This week also saw the RSF capture the Heglig oilfield, the largest oilfield in Sudan and the last part of West Kordofan to fall under its control.
The oilfield, which the group took on Monday, has been a significant source of income for SAF, partly because of revenues from its oil, and partly because of its role as a transit point for oil from South Sudan, which is refined at Heglig before being piped to Port Sudan for export.
In a statement on Monday, the RSF said its capture of Heglig marked a “pivotal point in the path toward liberating the entire country, given the region’s economic importance as a key source of funding for the Port Sudan clique”.
It also pledged to “protect the vital oil facilities in the area to safeguard the interests of the brotherly Republic of South Sudan”.
On Tuesday, dozens of people were killed in a SAF drone strike on the facility, the Associated Press reports. The exact death toll was not clear, although many of those killed were believed to have been RSF soldiers.
The following day, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had deployed to the oilfield and would secure it under a tripartite agreement with SAF and the RSF, Sudan Tribune reports.
SSPDF Chief of Staff Paul Nang said the agreement was intended to “completely neutralise the Heglig field from any fighting operations” because it represented an “economic lifeline not only for South Sudan, but also for Sudan”.
Oil accounts for around 90% of South Sudan’s government revenue and almost all of its exports.
Last month, the Chinese state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which has had a partnership with Sudan’s energy ministry since 1995, requested the “early termination” of its contracts at Heglig, Sudan Tribune reports.
“It has become increasingly obvious that resumption of the production of Block 6 [one of Heglig’s largest fields] is simply unattainable until the armed conflicts cease,” CNPC said in a letter.
It said it wanted to terminate its contracts by the end of this year, though added that it hoped to resume cooperation “once the armed conflict ends and security conditions are restored.”
The weekly dispatch features the latest developments, first-hand testimony, footage, photos, stats and analysis on Sudan. We can connect you with voices from the ground, experts, and survivors of the war. Get in touch on +44 7514 796 678 or sudan@avaaz.org.
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