TODAY marks 12 months of war in Sudan, which is once again sliding into the jaws of genocide.
Dozens of towns have been massacred. Thousands have been slaughtered as attackers go door to door, families murdered, bodies rotting, and mass graves appearing on satellite imagery. Evidence has emerged of child soldiers being recruited, and killed.
It's already being called a genocide. But with journalists hunted down or blocked from the country, mass atrocities remain hidden.
The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created the world’s largest displacement crisis and biggest hunger crisis, with many areas facing famine. This past year has seen indiscriminate SAF airstrikes on civilian areas, whilst the RSF has rampaged across the country, with numerous reports of rape, ethnic cleansing, and other serious violations against the Sudanese people.
Over 25 million people are mired in a humanitarian catastrophe, caused by the warring parties' flagrant disregard for international human rights and humanitarian law, the politicization of humanitarian aid access, and the international community's failure to engage.
The dire humanitarian conditions continue to spiral: On March 25, 2024, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that the number of internally displaced had increased by about 107,800 in the previous two weeks alone, bringing the total number of displaced to 8.5 million.
The latest death toll of 14,790 fatalities is a vast underestimate. Human Rights Watch said the RSF's ethnically targeted mass killings in West Darfur bear the hallmarks of an organized campaign of atrocities against Massalit civilians. Senior members of the US Senate have accused the RSF of genocide.
The US Special Envoy, Tom Periello, said he hopes the stalled Jeddah peace talks will soon resume. But there is little appetite for mediation from either side, who are committed to a military victory. Last week SAF launched its anticipated counter-offensive to recapture Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, captured by the RSF in December 2023.
Armed groups (such as the Sudanese Liberation Movement-Minni Minawi [SLM-M] and the Justice and Equality Movement [JEM]) have recently joined SAF, bolstering SAF's aerial dominance with significant infantry strength. Direct ground battles have been less common as a result of SAF's small ground presence. But Wad Madani is expected to see fierce ground battles between SAF/allies and the RSF which will inevitably lead to greater civilian casualties.
Analysis (read time: 30 seconds)
The international community has failed to respond to the crisis. The UN Security Council has passed three resolutions on Sudan since the outbreak of war: one to renew the mandate of the UN mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), one to end the mission, and another calling for a Ramadan ceasefire (which was not enforced in any way). This pitiful level of engagement occurred despite the calls of Sudanese experts, civil society, and the population highlighting the scale of violence and risk of regional spillover.
The Sudanese people have been clear about their demands: an immediate humanitarian ceasefire leading to a permanent cessation of hostilities. Humanitarian access and aid, including stronger international support for the locally-led humanitarian response. An end to violence and rapes against the civilian population. Justice and accountability for those who committed these human rights violations.
What must be done (read time: 30 seconds) There will never be peace while the belligerents continue to believe that a battlefield victory is possible. The international community must:
INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITIES
Voices from the Ground
Hutch is a project coordinator with the Emergency Response Rooms (a youth-led voluntary initiative providing frontline humanitarian assistance) from Khartoum. Over the past year he was in Khartoum and after that Port Sudan, providing and coordinating frontline humanitarian assistance. He fled the country and arrived in Kampala in March of this year. He is available for interviews in English and Arabic upon request.
Huwayda was a university student in Khartoum prior to the outbreak of war. While fleeing the war in the capital, she witnessed the tragic death of her older brother at the hands of the RSF. She has now relocated to Asia and is available for interviews in English and Arabic.
Experts
MOHAMED HASSAN is the Director of the Darfur Network for Human Rights (DNHR). They released a report last week on cases of torture and sexual violence allegedly committed by both the RSF and SAF against the civilian population.
MAYSOON SALAH is a doctor in El Gedaref, eastern Sudan who stayed to provide life-saving assistance to her community. She is also the Secretary of External Relations and Communications with the Gedaref Students and Women’s Association.
MAHASIN DAHAB was the dedicated manager of the Sudanese Archive, an open-source documentation hub gathering evidence and conducting investigations of human rights abuses in Sudan. Under her leadership, the Sudanese Archive archived over 200,000 pieces of information and published three impactful investigations.
SULAIMA ISHAQ ELKHALIFA Head of the Unit on Combatting Violence Against Women, has been documenting cases of rape and gender-based violence in Sudan since the start of the war. She has remained within Sudan to do this vital work.
Footage from the ground
Latest Statistics
Timeline
Pre-April 15, 2023: SAF and the RSF were in a relationship of political expediency. In October 2021 Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a coup – supported by RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti) – derailing Sudan’s transition to a civilian-led government following the December Revolution (2018-2019) which ended the 30-year rule of President Omar al-Bashir. Burhan and Hemedti's partnership broke down as tensions escalated regarding a deal through which the RSF was to be integrated into SAF with a return to civilian rule.
April 15, 2023: War breaks out with fierce fighting in Soba, Khartoum. It is still unclear which side attacked first. Over the coming months, an estimated 3.5 million people fled the city.
June: The RSF is accused of perpetrating ethnic cleansing against the Massalit community in El Geneina, West Darfur. The RSF and allied militias are also accused of assassinating the Governor of West Darfur.
July: The International Criminal Court (ICC) begins to investigate alleged violations of international law in Darfur since the start of war.
October: Taqaddum holds their preparatory meetings. The group, headed by Former Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok is a broad coalition of civil forces working to find a peaceful solution to the war and includes Sudanese civil society, political parties, and professional associations and unions, amongst others.
October to November: The RSF captures South, Central, West, and East Darfur states in rapid succession. SAF offers minimal resistance in defending its bases in each of the states, with the fiercest groundbattles seen in Nyala, Sudan’s second largest city. This led to mass displacement across Darfur with many facing secondary displacement.
December: The RSF captures Wad Madani, a significant strategic win for the RSF. Many of the urban displaced from Sudan had sought refuge in Madani and were forced to flee a second time, following the fall of the city.
January, 2024: Reports of Sudanese armed groups establishing training camps in Eritrea along Sudan’s eastern border.
Taqaddum signs the Addis Declaration with the RSF, a document that fails to condemn the RSF’s violations against civilians, undermining the group’s legitimacy and leading to public outcry.
Crackdown against civil opposition against the war. Multiple decrees by pro-SAF state leadership, banning the youth-led Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) and the Forces of Freedom and Change (the FFC is a coalition of political groups in Sudan and were a key part of the post-revolution political transition.
The ICC’s chief prosecutor says that SAF and the RSF are committing war crimes in Darfur, which was the scene of genocidal war in the 2000s which killed over 300,000 people.
February: Internet and telecommunications blackout in Sudan which was allegedly caused by the RSF. The blackout persisted for weeks, affecting the ability of many civilians to buy basic goods and services using money transfer apps. This led to the closure of many communal kitchens across the country as organizers were unable to receive funds from the diaspora. There has been partial restoration of some services, however many civilians continue to rely on smuggled Starlink devices for internet access.
The Clingendael Institute estimated 500,000 people are likely to die in Sudan due to hunger by mid-2024.
A prominent bipartisan group of US Senators introduced a resolution recognizing the actions of the RSF and allied militia in Darfur against non-Arab ethnic communities as acts of genocide.
March: SAF captured the national radio and television headquarters in Omdurman from the RSF. This was SAF’s first major offensive win since the outbreak of war.
April: SAF and its allies launched their counter-offensive to recapture Wad Madani and the entire Gezira State from the RSF. Major Darfur rebel groups are fighting alongside SAF, such as the SLM-M and JEM. The Darfur Joint Force, made up armed groups from Darfur that signed the Juba Peace Agreement, declared war on the RSF.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is building an earthen wall around El Fasher to create a “kill box” and prevent civilians fleeing the besieged city, satellite imagery suggests.
People caught trying to smuggle food into the besieged city of El Fasher are being “executed on sight” by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to one civilian.
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